Brazilian Serie B Round 12: When Data Meets Drama

As a Premier League analyst raised on Opta spreadsheets, I can’t help but marvel at the chaotic beauty of Brazil’s second division. Serie B (founded in 1971, for those keeping score) delivered another round where xG models wept softly into their keyboards. Let’s autopsy the madness:

The 1-1 Epidemic Three consecutive draws opened Round 12 - Volta Redonda vs Avai (1-1), Botafogo-SP squeezing past Chapecoense (1-0), and América-MG’s late equalizer against CRB (1-1). The latter saw América-MG underperform their xG by 0.8 while CRB’s goalkeeper channeled his inner Neuer with 6 saves. Statistically improbable? Absolutely. Entertaining? You bet.

Avai’s Week from Hell Losing 2-1 to Paraná after drawing midweek shows why my algorithm flags them as ‘relegation candidates with commitment issues’. Their defensive line moved slower than my motivation on Monday mornings - conceding twice from crosses Parana targeted like homing missiles.

Standout Performer Shoutout to Goiás’ striker who bagged a brace against Atlético Mineiro. His heatmap showed more red zones than a Manchester United fan’s face during derbies. Meanwhile, Vila Nova’s 1-0 upset over Goiânia proved low-block defenses still work when executed with military precision.

The Data Doesn’t Lie (But Coaches Might)

Our predictive model correctly called ⁷⁄₁₀ results this round, failing only on matches where:

1. A dog ran onto the pitch (Amazonas FC vs Vila Nova)
2. The referee forgot his glasses (Ferroviária’s questionable penalty)
3. Pure Brazilian magic intervened

Up next? Watch CRB vs América-MG Part II - now with 200% more grudges. And if you think these games are unpredictable, wait till you see my sleep-deprived betting slips.