Brazilian Serie B Round 12: A Data-Driven Breakdown

The Brazilian Serie B continues to deliver drama, with Round 12 offering a mix of tight contests, late drama, and tactical battles. As a data analyst who thrives on dissecting football through numbers, let’s break down the key takeaways from this round.

League Overview

Founded in 1971, the Campeonato Brasileiro Série B is Brazil’s second-tier league, featuring 20 teams fighting for promotion to the top flight. This season has been particularly competitive, with narrow margins separating mid-table sides from playoff contenders.

Match Highlights

• Avai’s Rollercoaster Week: Avai drew 1-1 with Volta Redonda but later fell 1-2 to Paraná Clube, highlighting their inconsistency. Their xG (expected goals) stats suggest they’re creating chances but struggling to convert.
• Botafogo-SP’s Gritty Win: A 1-0 victory over Chapecoense showcased their defensive resilience, with goalkeeper saves proving decisive.
• Late Drama in Goias vs. Atlético-MG: Goias lost 1-2 despite a spirited comeback attempt, underscoring their vulnerability at set-pieces.

Key Stats & Trends

• Low-Scoring Affairs: 6 of the 11 matches ended with under 2.5 goals, reflecting the league’s emphasis on defensive organization.
• Home Advantage Fading: Only 40% of home teams won, suggesting away sides are adapting better to neutral venues or empty stands.

Teams to Watch

1. CRB: Their 2-1 win over Brasil de Pelotas moved them into playoff contention. Midfielder Rafael Longuine has been a creative force.
2. Goias: Despite mixed results, their attacking xG numbers hint at potential if they tighten up defensively.

Looking Ahead

Next round’s clash between Avaí and CRB could be pivotal for both sides’ promotion hopes. Meanwhile, Paraná Clube’s solid defending makes them dark horses for a top-four finish.

Data point: Teams averaging >1.5 xG per game have a 70% chance of top-half finishes—keep an eye on Vila Nova and Amazonas FC.