Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Tactical Breakdown, Surprises, and What’s Next

The Draw Fest in Brazil’s Second Tier

Another round of Brazilian Serie B proved why this league is a goldmine for tactical masochists. Six of nine completed matches ended in draws—because nothing screams entertainment like 1-1 scorelines and existential crises for strikers. Let’s dissect the chaos.

Key Matches: Where Goals Went to Die

• Volta Redonda 1-1 Avaí: A textbook example of ‘almost but not quite.’ Volta Redonda’s xG of 1.8 vs. Avaí’s 0.9 suggests someone forgot their shooting boots (or prayed too hard to the crossbar god).
• Botafogo-SP 1-0 Chapecoense: The only team brave enough to win, Botafogo-SP now sits uncomfortably close to the promotion zone. Their xGA of 0.7? Defensive discipline or just luck? We’re leaning toward the former.

Tactical Trends: Parking the Bus with Flair

Serie B’s mid-table teams have perfected the art of the low block. Cuiabá’s 3-5-2 against América-MG? A masterclass in frustrating opponents. But let’s not ignore:

• Vila Nova’s 1-0 win over Goiás: A smash-and-grab so efficient it could’ve been a heist movie. Their keeper made 5 saves—xG be damned.

Predictions for the Next Round

With Amazonas FC vs. Botafogo-SP looming, expect more tactical chess (or desperation). My Python model gives a 63% chance of under 2.5 goals—because Serie B loves its nil-nils.

Pro tip for bettors: Back draws when mid-table teams face off. Or don’t. I’m just a guy with spreadsheets, not a fortune teller.