The Stats Behind Ulsan’s Collapse

When your xGA (expected goals against) looks like a cardiogram during a heart attack, you know there’s problems. Ulsan HD’s 4-2 loss to Fluminense wasn’t just bad luck - it was statistically inevitable. My Python scripts spat out warnings after analyzing their first match against Mamelodi Sundowns (0-1 loss), showing their center-backs were positioning like they were in separate time zones.

Tactical Breakdown

The heatmaps don’t lie:

• Defensive line: Averaged 38.7 yards from goal (highest in tournament)
• Press resistance: Won just 12% of duels in midfield third
• Transition defense: Conceded 3 goals from counterattacks (worst in group stage)

That disastrous 4-2 against Fluminense? Our models gave them a 14% chance of winning after the first Brazilian goal. By halftime, it dropped to 3.2% - worse odds than me finding a clean coffee mug in our analytics office.

Looking Ahead

With K-League play resuming soon, manager Hong Myung-bo needs to:

1. Fix zonal marking (they conceded 78% of set pieces)
2. Drop aging center-back Kim Young-gwon (slowest acceleration in tournament at 2.89 m/s²)
3. Start Lee Dong-gyeong more often (created 2.3 chances per 90 despite limited minutes)

As an analyst who once coded an entire scouting system because a coach said “data is for accountants,” I’ll be watching their next matches with particular interest… and probably another broken keyboard.